By Samie Al-Dulaimi
WASHINGTON, Oct 14 (KUNA) -- The upcoming meeting on Syria in Lausanne, Switzerland, will be held in the US and Russian interests of "diplomacy and formalities" and will serve Moscow's "duplicitous behavior" based on keeping President Bashar Al-Assad in power, analysts suggest.
The talks will "allow both sides to put a diplomatic path on display of a continuing relationship between Russia and the US on the matter," the Middle East Institute's Vice President for Policy and Research, Paul Salem, told KUNA.
US State Secretary John Kerry is expected to meet Russian Foreign Sergey Lavrov and possibly other foreign ministers in Lausanne, Switzerland, on Saturday to discuss the conflict in Syria after several failed attempts for a binding cessation of hostilities agreement between the two.
The upcoming talks will serve the interests of US President Barack Obama and State Secretary Kerry politically within the US, for them "not to be accused of breaking off the prospect of negotiations completely." It will also serve the interests of Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov as "they continue to claim that Russia urges peaceful actions and diplomacy" on Syria, said the deputy head of the Washington-based think tank.
These talks are much like the abandoned peace talks between the Israelis and the Palestinians that "go on and on without any results," and Salem argues that "this permanence benefits appearances." Salem believes that the talks will benefit Russia, Iran and the Syrian regime, in particular, who in the absence of the US from the battlefield, will work to solidify Bashar Al-Assad's grip on Aleppo.
"It will also work to distract the US from a carrying out a tough military response," he added.
Where military options are concerned as Obama meets his advisors behind closed doors in Washington to discuss a possible intensification of military action on Syria, the analyst he does "not think" that this was under the Obama Administration's consideration.
"There are many within the administration who have called for tougher military options in Syria over the past years but Obama has always refused this and chosen the path of non-intervention," said Salem, after UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson's admission that the UK should reconsider its military stance towards the conflict.
This "non-intervention policy" will remain over the next few weeks of Obama's presidency, he said, and the US president "will not subject his administration, or that of the upcoming president fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton, to a new predicament in Syria." Just as long as the matter of Syria does not negatively affect the current US election campaign, Obama will hope this remains the case up until the November elections.
Furthermore, Obama is not thinking "at all" of "big options" like a no-fly zone or drone attacks on Syrian positions, adds Salem, but in the meantime he might request US intelligence to support arming opposition. This will not "alter the equation and will not represent a radical change." For his part, Non Resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council and former US Ambassador to Kuwait Richard LeBaron said that "you can't hope for too much" from these talks as a result of Russia's "duplicitous behavior" on Syria.
"All you can do is hope for the best and prepare for the worst," he said, unless all sides "enter a serious process of finding a political solution to the overall issue not just Aleppo - the whole situation." The former US diplomat also did not rule out US military intervention in the Syrian conflict, and underlined that it was "incumbent on the Russians to decide whether they would put us in a situation where it is almost impossible not to do more." However, he expressed belief that there was "still room" for a diplomatic solution. Russia is going to have to be "part of the solution," he added. (end) sd.gb