Conflicts, oil prices key to MENA economic outlook - IMF director

WASHINGTON, Oct 10 (KUNA) -- Conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa, and the price of oil, are two important factors that will shape the economic outlook of the region, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) official said on Saturday.
Foremost is the effect of "deepening and intensifying conflicts in the region, particularly in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen," said Masood Ahmed, director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the IMF.
Ahmed spoke at a press conference during the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Lima, Peru.
The second factor that will shape the outlook for the region is the price of oil, he said.
"The slump in oil prices that has taken place over the past year is now, most experts believe, one that will live with us for a number of years to come," Ahmed noted, pointing out that earnings of the oil-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa have gone down by USD 360 billion in 2015 compared to 2014.
Achieving fiscal sustainability will be even more challenging given the need to find jobs for the more than 10 million people are anticipated to be looking for work in the oil-exporting countries by 2020, Ahmed said.
The IMF recommends that some of these countries accelerate efforts to diversify the economy away from oil and allow private firms to expand their activities "in a way that does not depend on government spending or on oil," he said.
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are doing better than the others, Ahmed noted. Their growth rate is about 3.25 percent this year and will slow next year to just below three percent as they continue fiscal adjustment, he said.
"Outside of the GCC, this year actually there is virtually no growth in the oil exporters," he noted. (end) rm.hb