By Ronald Baygents
WASHINGTON, April 16 (KUNA) -- Security and jobs were the top concerns cited among Iraqis polled earlier this year in a prelude to Iraqi elections later this month, according to Elvis Zutic, resident director of the National Democratic Institute (NDI) Iraq.
Zutic presented findings from the late January NDI poll during a panel presentation on Wednesday at the United States Institute of Peace. The panel topic was "Consolidating Democratic Gains or Cementing Sectarian Divides? Prospects for Iraq's April 30 Elections." The poll, which was broken down among four regions of Iraq -- Baghdad, the South, the North and the West -- showed that among all Iraqis, 41 percent believed their country was going in the right direction, Zutic said.
Corruption and sectarianism were the third and fourth top concerns, respectively, among all Iraqis, the poll found.
In Kurdistan, sectarianism was not much of a concern, but corruption was "a big concern," Zutic noted.
Since a previous poll conducted among Iraqis in September, the latest poll indicated respondents perceived improvements, in ranking order, in electrical supplies, water supplies, education and the cost of living, Zutic said.
The latest poll found regional perceptions differed on core issues with security viewed as better in Baghdad and the South, but worse in the West and North.
A solid minority of Iraqis polled said sectarianism was too deeply rooted, with one in three saying sectarianism was there to stay. Zutic said he believed that "in time sectarianism will become less of a factor in Iraq." Among all Iraqis polled, 65 percent said they believed democracy was the best form of government, compared to 27 percent who felt otherwise. This majority view of democracy as positive was strongest in Baghdad and the South, the poll found.
Similarly, 72 percent of all Iraqis polled viewed the upcoming elections as a "good thing," and this view was especially strong in Baghdad and the South.
While the poll found strong enthusiasm for the upcoming elections in Baghdad and the South, two-thirds of Sunnis polled in the West said they would stay home during the balloting. The poll found that 66 percent of all Iraqis believed the elections would be free and fair, but in the West, only 37 percent shared that view.
The highest turnout for the elections is expected to be in Kurdistan, Zutic said. In that region, poll respondents said jobs and corruption were their dominant concerns, while the issue of security came in a distant sixth there.
Among unlikely Iraqi voters polled, 41 percent listed as their main reason for pessimism that they do not believe their vote will change things. Their second biggest concern was that there would not be adequate security at polling stations during the balloting.
In the broad polling category of "solutions for key issues," Iraqis said the best ways to improve security was through better equipment for the army, better training for the army and the disbanding of all militias, in that order.
On the economy, respondents said the most important issue was providing access to loans for small business owners; second was providing incentives for companies to hire more employees; and third was bringing in foreign oil companies to develop Iraqi oil fields.
On education, respondents cited as the top issue the improvement of the quality of teachers; second was building more schools; and third was improving the curriculum of schools.
On health care, respondents said the top issue was lowering the price of medications; second was building more health care facilities; and third was increasing the availability of medications.
On the issue of ways to decrease corruption, respondents said there should be more focus on the central government; second was increasing jail sentences for corrupt officials; and third was putting more focus on location corruption.
Asked what was most important in the elections, the candidate or the accomplishments of the candidate, respondents said the individual candidate was tops, followed by the accomplishments of the candidate, then the policies of the political party, followed by party leaders.
Asked to rank who was most influential in the elections process, the respondents cited the candidates, the political party, party leaders, family members and religious leaders, in that order.
Panelist Zalmay Khalilzad, a former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan and Iraq, said the absence of a consensus among Iraqis on critical issues persists. Part of the reason for this is the conflict in Syria, which has resulted in Iraqis choosing sides on that, he said.
Another problem is "regional polarization," which has grown since the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, with Iran, Turkey and some Arab states "seeking to fill the vacuum" in Iraq, Khalilzad said.
He said he expects voting in the election will break more along ethnic and sectarian identities this year than occurred in the 2009 Iraqi elections.
One scenario is that there could be "deadlock" in the government if Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is unable to get enough support to form a new government, creating a "vacuum of authority," Khalilzad said.
Panelist Sarhang Hamasaeed, senior program officer for Middle East and North Africa Programs with the United States Institute of Peace, said it was important that the elections take place on time, and noted that Sunnis will have concerns about the legitimacy of the elections and the representation of Sunnis in the next government.
Questions will arise about which candidates ran and whether polling stations were open, he said. Security issues could dampen turnout among Sunnis, he noted, echoing the poll findings.
"We will see more sectarian conversations and narrative than in the last election," Hamasaeed said, and the various candidate campaigns need to take this into consideration in order to increase the possibility of successful governing to take place post-election.
Sectarianism "threatens the very fabric of Iraqi society," he said, describing it as "the push for more fragmentation among the different regions of Iraq."
"It is important that these issues be addressed through the elections -- and non-violently," he said. (end) rm