LOC19:09
16:09 GMT
KUWAIT, Aug 10 (KUNA) -- The total commercial balance in the Gulf
Cooperation Council member states will achieve a surplus that varies between
USD 400-500 billion in 2012, a specialized economic report showed Friday.
The report, by Kuwait Finance House-Research (KFH), expected that economies
in that region will witness 6.5 percent growth in 2012 as a result of the
support received by oil and gas sectors.
In addition, KFH also said that the average inflation rate in GCC countries
will increase to 4 percent this year, in light of the increasing prices of
food items. It stated that interest rates will remain stable until 2014.
Crude oil price is expected to hit average USD 96.8pb in 2012 and USD 97.
0pb in 2013 (2011: USD 95.0pb) mainly due to strong demand from the emerging
markets.
The GCC is expected to benefit from the increased reorientation of external
trade demand from developed countries in the West towards fast-growing
emerging markets.
Asia will be the most important emerging market region for the GCC as we
believe oil consumption will grow by 4.4 percent per year on average over the
next five years.
Meanwhile, aggregate trade balance is expected to record a massive trade
surplus of USD400.0-500.0bln in 2012 (2011: USD520.0bln) on the back of robust
hydrocarbon exports.
According to the World Bank's "Doing Business (DB) in the Arab World 2012"
report, governments in thirteen out of twenty Arab economies have implemented
twenty regulatory reforms between June 2010 and May 2011 aimed at improving
business environment for local entrepreneurs.
Over the past 6 years, 94.0 percent of the eighteen Arab economies in the
survey made their regulatory environment more business-friendly. We expect
foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into the GCC and productivity to
improve in the coming years as significant number of business reforms are
being implemented.
As for Inflation across the GCC, the report a mixed trend in 1H12 as
compared the pace in 2011, induced by a stronger USD, to which all GCC
countries peg their currencies. Rental inflation divides the GCC region, with
housing prices dampening overall price pressure in Bahrain, UAE and Qatar, but
elevating in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Oman.
The government's increased spending has put upward pressures on prices in
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Meanwhile, falling rents curb the overall inflation
from rising further in Qatar, UAE and Bahrain due to oversupply of house and
government measures to restrain housing prices.
Inflation has stabilized at levels well below the pre-crisis trend, helped
by price control measures. For 2012, inflation rate in the GCC is expected to
increase to 4.0 percent (2011: 3.7 percent y-o-y) due to rising food prices.
The GCC countries are highly dependent on imported food, particularly
cereals, oils and sugar. In the event of further food price increases, the GCC
is expected to face higher import bills which will translate into domestic
inflation.
The report, however, noted that pegging of the GCC currencies to the US
dollar inhibits flexibility of the interest rate movements in the GCC.
"We forecast policy rates in the GCC countries will remain untouched until
2014 as the Federal Reserve pledged to keep the US interest rates closer to
zero in the next two years. We also believe that the GCC will remain committed
in pegging its currencies against the US dollar, as it provides stability and
the authorities seem not keen in changing the system," the report said.
Fiscal expenditure of the GCC is expected to remain high in 2012 as
governments in the GCC continue to expand subsidies, transfers and
public-sector wages to meet higher social demands and reduce unemployment.
"However, we expect GCC's fiscal balance to record a surplus of 15.3
percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012 from 12.9 percent of GDP in
2011 as increased government expenditures will be counterbalanced by higher
oil revenues," it pointed out.
The European Union (EU) is the largest trading partner for the GCC at 13.4
percent of total GCC's trade and 6.8 percent of total GCC's exports in 2010.
In 2011, 78.9 percent of the GCC's exports to the EU were from mineral
fuels and lubricants-related products. Exports demand from the euro-area,
particularly for oil will remain weak following the sovereign debt crisis.
Slower economic activities will lead to slower consumer demand for goods and
services.(end)
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KUNA 101909 Aug 12NNNN