By Tamer Aboalenin GENEVA, Feb 8 (KUNA) -- Many analysts see that the russian and chinese Veto in the UN security Council was expected for different reasons.
Interviewed by KUNA, Professor Riccardo Bocco from the Graduate institute in Geneva said, "the Russian and the Chinese Veto in the Security Council is a clear message that they do not like to create a precedent for an intervention in their internal affairs, as we know that the Russian regime has problems with the Chechen and the Chinese government with the Ouigour and Tibetan minorities." "If Russia and China accept such a UN Security Council resolution, it will be a signal for the Chechen rebels, the Ouigors, and the Tibetans to continue to fight for their rights, which will not be tolerated by Moscow and Beijing." At the same time, "The Russians and the Chinese used (from their point of view) good arguments to defend their position as the international laws do not give the right for external intervention in domestic affairs," explained Prof. Bocco.
But there is a big difference between the two countries. "Russia has a good experience in the region and would like to play a role in the new Middle East. If the Saudis succeeded to solve the Yemeni problem, Russians may do the same in Syria, but with their own strategy and philosophy of politics." This difference leads one to ask about the Russian solution which seems to be "a double strategy in Syria: an official position which we know, and a hidden position," explained Prof. Bocco.
He thinks that Russia "will try to force Assad into reform. Russia knows well the Assad regime, and know also how to deal with it." "Russia might tolerate weapons smuggling to the Free Syrian Army, because they can open contact with the opposition. If Russia sees that Assad will not implement any reform, they might change sides and stand by the opposition. However, Russia will try to play the role of the main external mediator in the Syrian issue. China has not much diplomatic experience in the region." But the situation on the ground will not be easy in the next few days, as Prof. Bocco explains. "The future is filled with tensions in Syria and in the region: the Syrian army controls the borders with Lebanon and Turkey, using land mines to prevent infiltrations and weapons smuggling. Civilians' killing will probably increase (over the) next weeks, because the Assad regime thinks that it can still stop the revolt through repression.
"The Syrian security and armed forces will try to do away with the Free Syrian Army, using the argument that they are terrorists and supported by foreign countries," he added.
According to Prof. Bocco, "the Russian and the Chinese vetos might not necessarily lead to tension with the Western powers: actually, all parties have common economic interests."(end) ta.wsa KUNA 081030 Feb 12NNNN