OPEC urges IEA to face reality of energy market

VIENNA, Nov 12 (KUNA) -- OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais stressed on Wednesday that the International Energy Agency (IEA) needs an essential review of its previous forecasts, two years after it declared the "beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era".
This came in an article published by Al Ghais today, in response to IEA Executive Director's statements during an interview with "Financial Times" in September 2023.
IEA head said in the interview "we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era and we have to prepare ourselves for the next era." Al Ghais noted the data mentioned in the recent IEA report titled "World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2025" was contradicting the statements as it revealed the continued oil role and gas in global energy mix for upcoming decades.
The 'Current Policy Scenario' (CPS) states that "oil and gas demand do not peak" out to 2050 and that "oil remains the dominant fuel" over this period, Al Ghais said.
In terms of total liquids demand by 2050, OPEC's World Oil Outlook is at just under 123 million barrels a day (mb/d) and the IEA's CPS reports just over 119 mb/d. (On a volume equivalent basis, OPEC calculates total liquids demand in the IEA's CPS at just over 121 mb/d by 2050), he stated.
"While we acknowledge that the IEA published other scenarios, exhibiting alternative paths, in a surprising reversal, it is the first time in many years that it has recognized that oil and gas can be expected to play a large role in evolving future energy pathways," he noted.
In fact, its new Accelerating Clean Cooking and Electricity Services Scenario (ACCESS) that provides a roadmap to achieve universal access to electricity and clean cooking references the importance of an oil product, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). It states that LPG underpins most new clean cooking access, increasing its use to around 3.4 mb/d in residential cooking by 2040, Al Ghais pointed out.
Al Ghais mentioned that "for oil, in particular, the IEA's talk of a global oil demand peak before the end of this decade was also accompanied by a call for a halt to new oil investments. Wishful thinking was driving the IEA's oil investment story. Thankfully, we have witnessed U-turns on this in 2025." Al Ghais went to say, "The IEA Executive Director said at CERA Week in March 2025 that there is a need for investment in oil and gas fields to support global energy security. He then went further in September when launching the report, The Implications of Oil and Gas Field Decline Rates, stating that, an absence of upstream investment would remove the equivalent of Brazil and Norway's combined production each year from the global market balance. The situation means that the industry has to run much faster just to stand still." According to the IEA report, upstream oil and gas require the most investment in the coming decade when comparing all fuels.
OPEC sees that changes confirm its correct situation based on the need of adopting an inclusive approach of all sources of energy, he noted.
"As OPEC has advocated on many occasions, the history of energy has been about additions. Major energy sources have not disappeared, or been left in the rearview mirror. In fact, they continue to complement and even depend on each other, with this further driving demand. For example, renewables will be an important and expanding part of the future energy landscape, but their development requires a variety of oil products," OPEC chief stated.
For too long, the fixation of industry commentators with 'peaks,' be they supply or demand, has inhibited sound analysis, good policy and the development of an investment friendly climate. "'Peak-ism' and the IEA's [former] tendency to proclaim imminent peaks at every opportunity amounts to little more than a slogan, a headline, providing no value as a framework for analyzing future energy pathways, he explained.
"We need facts, not fantasies. We need impartiality, not ideology. We hope that the IEA's World Energy Outlook represents a return to the fold of analysis grounded in energy realities and that we have passed the peak in the misguided notion of 'peak oil," Al Ghais concluded. (end) amq.hm