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OPEC expects global oil demand to grow

VIENNA, Feb 13 (KUNA) -- In 2025, global oil demand is expected to see a robust growth of 1.8 mb/d, unchanged from the last month's assessment, OPEC said in its monthly report on Tuesday.
According to the report, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is also forecasting a grow by 0.1 mb/d, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to increase by 1.7 mb/d.
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) rose by USD 1.04, or 1.3 percent, in January to average USD 80.04/b.
Oil futures prices increased, with the ICE Brent front-month contract rising by USD 1.83, or 2.4 percent to USD 79.15/b, and the NYMEX WTI contract rising by USD 1.74, or 2.4 percent, to average USD 73.86/b.
The DME Oman front-month contract increased by USD 2.12, or 2.8 percent, to settle at UD 78.95/b.
The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread further widened in January by 9 آ¢ to average USD 5.29/b.
The market structure of oil futures prices strengthened, with the front of forward curves for all major benchmarks flipping into backwardation.
Selling pressure in oil futures markets eased, and money managers rebuilt part of their bullish positions in ICE Brent.
The world economic growth forecast now stands at 2.7 percent for 2024 and 2.9 percent in 2025, following slight upward revisions for each year compared with the previous month's assessment.
US economic growth for 2024 is revised up to 1.6 percent, as healthy momentum from the second half of 2023 is expected to continue.
The forecast for 2025 is also revised up from the previous assessment to 1.7 percent.
The economic growth forecast for the Eurozone remains at 0.5 percent for 2024 and 1.2 percent for 2025, while Japan's economic growth forecast is unchanged at 0.9 percent in 2024 and 1 percent in 2025.
China's economic growth forecast remains at 4.8 percent in 2024 and 4.6 percent in 2025.
Meanwhile, India's economic growth forecast remains at 5.9 percent for 2024 and 6.1 percent in 2025.
Brazil's economic growth forecast for 2024 is revised up to 1.5 percent, while the forecast for 2025 stays unchanged at 1.9 percent.
Russia's economic growth forecast for 2024 is revised up to 1.7 percent, with growth in 2025 unchanged at 1.2 percent.
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 remains unchanged from last month's assessment at 2.2 mb/d.
A slight upward adjustment to the US forecast has been made given the improving expectation for the US economy, which will have a positive impact on oil demand.
This offsets the downward revision made in OECD Europe.
The OECD is projected to expand by around 0.3 mb/d and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d this year.
World Oil Supply Non-OPEC liquids production in 2024 is expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d, revised down from the previous month's assessment.
The main drivers for liquids supply growth in 2024 are expected to be the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Norway.
The forecast for non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2025 stands at 1.3 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month, mainly driven by the US, Brazil, Canada, Norway, Kazakhstan and Guyana.
Separately, OPEC natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by around 64 tb/d this year to average 5.5 mb/d, followed by a growth of 110 tb/d in 2025 to average 5.6 mb/d.
OPEC-12 crude oil production in January decreased by 350 tb/d, m-o-m, to average 26.34 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
In January, refinery margins showed solid gains on the US Gulf Coast (USGC), as reductions in product supplies caused by weather-related refinery outages constrained product stock builds ahead of the heavy maintenance season.
In Singapore, gains were considerably more limited, as refinery maintenance in the region restricted product output, despite considerable growth in naphtha stocks.
However, in Rotterdam, margins declined, with seasonal overall product market weakness having offset the bullish market sentiment derived from slower middle distillate imports amid ongoing geopolitical tension.
Global refinery intake declined in January following a sharp upward trend witnessed over the previous two consecutive months to show a 1.1 mb/d decline in January, averaging 80.8 mb/d, compared with 81.9 mb/d the previous month.
Nevertheless, January intake was still 1.1 mb/d higher relative to the same time a year earlier.
Demand for OPEC crude in 2024 stands at about 28.4 mb/d, which is 1.0 mb/d higher than the estimated level for 2023.
Demand for OPEC crude in 2025 is expected to reach about 28.8 mb/d, an increase of about 0.5 mb/d over the forecast 2024 level. (end) amq.mb