Scepticism over success of EU gas reduction plan

Analysis by Nawab Khan BRUSSELS, July 28 (KUNA) -- European media and analysts are sceptical if a political agreement reached by European Union (EU) energy ministers on Tuesday on a voluntary reduction of natural gas demand by EU member states by 15 percent this winter will work out, citing several reasons such as disunity among EU ranks.
The purpose of the gas demand reduction is to make savings ahead of winter in order to prepare for possible disruptions of gas supplies from Russia which is continuously using energy supplies as a weapon, said the ministers in a statement.
Explaining the rationale behind the 15 percent reduction, EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson asserted that in case of a full disruption of gas supply in July, EU countries would face a gap of 30 billion cubic meters (cbm) in an average winter and 45 bcm in cold winter.
"45bcm corresponds to a 15 percent cut in our usual gas consumption between the beginning of August and the end of March. That's why we have pointed to this percentage as the target all Member States should strive forward," she said.
The voluntary agreement, however, will become mandatory if gas supplies reach crisis levels.
The EU agreement came as Russia's energy giant Gazprom on Wednesday (27 July) cut gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany to 20 percent of capacity which has led to an increase in European gas prices.
Hungary voted against the European Union energy ministers' proposal to reduce the use of natural gas and criticised the move as "unenforceable, unjustifiable and useless".
"EU unity is crumbling even before things get really serious," Slovenian newspaper Dnevnik commented.
The gas reduction plans contain a number of exemptions for island countries, like Ireland and Malta, which are not connected to the EU gas grid, and for those that have already cut their consumption, and those using a lot of gas as feedstock to make fertilizer.
British weekly The Economist opined that "if the coming winter is mild, the EU may scrape by. But if it is cold the bloc will have to prove that it can hold together when times are hard." Dutch paper De Telegraaf is also sceptical about the many exemptions and opt-outs.
"There is zero certainty for the coming winter - giving Putin all the more leeway to play countries off against each other. The bottom line is that the disunited energy ministers will have to renegotiate as soon as there is a gas shortage," it said.
Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency warned: "If we are not able to make this significant reduction in consumption I wouldnآ’t exclude that there would be a serious rationing of energy this winter." Already, 12 EU countries have faced complete or partial cut-offs of their Russian gas supply, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has warned that a complete cut-off from Russian gas is a "likely scenario".
Germany, Austria, Hungary, and Italy are particularly vulnerable to disruptions in Russian gas supply due to their high dependence on the Russian energy.
On his part, Aleksey Grivach, Deputy General Director at the Russian National Energy Security Fund, believes that Europeans have made their energy system "weather-dependent." Speaking about the chance of resolving the gas situation in Europe, Grivach told the Russian TASS news agency that "it is very difficult to predict, because many factors affect, from weather conditions and current gas consumption, the availability of other alternative sources." "There is a very complex model, it is very susceptible to weather influence. In general, the system is increasingly dependent on the weather, because the share of weather-dependent energy sources is growing. Europeans have made their system "weather-dependent," the Russian expert said.
Meanwhile, the price of gas in Europe rose above USD 2,300 per 1,000 cubic meters for the first time since March on Wednesday amid a reduction in pumping through the Nord Stream.
On Monday, Gazprom announced the forced shutdown of another gas turbine engine and as a result from July 27, gas pumping through the Nord Stream dropped by half to 20 percent, or 33 mln cubic meters per day from 67 mln cubic meters.
Before the Ukraine war, Russia provided 40 percent of the EU's gas, but the EU plans to slash Russian gas imports by 66 percent this year.
The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen recently said that from 2027, the European Union will stop importing Russian gas or oil, adding that whether this is feasible only time will tell. (end) nk.mt