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ICG sees "modest step" at Berlin conf to end war in Libya

BRUSSELS, Jan 18 (KUNA) -- The International Crisis Group (ICG) Saturday opined that the Berlin conference on Libya to be held on Sunday could see a modest step forward to stabilise Libya. "In a best-case scenario, the Berlin conference could be a modest step forward in efforts to end the war and stabilise the country," the Brussels-based think tank said in an analysis.
Yet, it warned "the risk remains that some participants will merely pay lip service to the diplomatic initiative, even as they continue to fuel a war from which they benefit." "If the conference only included high-level representatives of foreign states, as originally planned, its outcome would have been predictable. Even those backing opposing Libyan factions almost certainly would have signed the conference's pre-drafted final declaration," wrote Libya expert at the ICG Claudia Gazzini.
"If all goes according to plan, representatives of the U.S., EU, UK, France, Russia, China, Italy, Germany, Turkey, Egypt, the UAE, Algeria and Congo-Brazzaville, as well as the UN, Arab League and African Union, will sign a 55-point declaration," she said.
"But the last-minute invitation of Serraj and Haftar - while understandable insofar as it gives the meeting more Libyan buy-in - adds a new level of unpredictability and, potentially, drama to the event," she warns.
"Furthermore, the alleged shipment of additional weapons to both Tripoli and Benghazi in recent days, and renewed calls among pro-Haftar tribesmen to close oil export terminals in their areas, make the situation inside Libya particularly tense. This, in turn, makes the conference's outcome more uncertain ," added Gazzini. (end) nk.rk