Analysis by John Keating
PARIS, Dec 15 (KUNA) -- Despite social and tax concessions made this week by French President Emmanuel Macron, the French leader is still not out of the woods and continues to face problems with broad, social discontent, a quasi-insurrectional situation in schools and universities and threats of strikes in the agriculture and transport sectors, among others.
Macron spoke to the nation last Monday to try to appease the explosive protests that have risen in crescendo every weekend for the past month, with hundreds of thousands of so-called 'Yellow Vests' taking to the streets in disorganised crowds.
Infiltrated by extremists on the left and the right wings, massive violence during the demonstrations shocked the country and billions of Euros in damages was caused to public and private property in Paris and in several other major cities.
When the 40-year-old president spoke on national television last Monday, he was heard by 23 million spectators, an all-time record for such an address.
And Macron did what he said he would never do: He backed down and backtracked on some social charges on retirees and he increased minimum wage by EUR 100 (USD 114), bringing it above the EUR 1,400 level.
He also apologised for what was perceived as a distant attitude towards the protests.
Before his speech, 84 percent of French people surveyed said they supported the 'Yellow Vest' protesters, according to "IFOP" pollster.
After his speech, that support dropped to over 50 percent but is on the rise again.
Macron was surprised by the depth of feeling among protesters and he sought to convince them of his sincerity and his willingness to improve their lives, particularly by boosting purchasing power.
Pollster "Elabe" said on "BFM television" that Macron failed to convince a majority of people, and 57 percent said they were not seduced by his promises, while 60 percent remained unconvinced the President would listen to the people.
"This reaction hit Macron like a boomerang and it came back to hit him after 18 months in power," said Jean-Pierre Veret, Director-General of "Expression Consulting," a media-training company that works closely with the French institutions.
Commenting to KUNA on the policies of the French leader, Veret said that Macron had not factored in "the reaction of the street" to his tax measures that eased "Fortune" taxes initially on the most rich, while hiking social taxes on the less well off.
Veret said that while some of Macron's economically liberal policies were good, "he had not evaluated how to balance them in the eyes of the public." Indeed, Macron has been accused of being "The President of the Rich" for some time and well ahead of the current social explosion that has killed five people in accidents and incidents and has scarred France in the eyes of valuable tourists.
Losses and cancellations in the valuable tourism sector are already in the billions of Euros and growing fast as international media show Paris like a battle field, with burning businesses and cars in the area around the world-renowned Champs Elysees avenue and elsewhere.
Macron's appeasing economic measures aimed at the poorest sectors will cost over EUR 10 billion (USD 14), according to Labour Minister Muriel Penicaut.
Added to this will be several billion euros in reparation and loss of business costs because of the violence.
This is bad news for Macron, again, because France will probably not keep European Union deficit and budget targets whereby the deficit must remain under 3.0 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)." In addition, the cost to the French economy is already been calculated at 0.1 percent loss to GDP, according to Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire. But the Bank of France sees the loss to GDP already at 0.2 percent and the protests are still not clearly halted.
Support for the 'Yellow Vest' protest this week has eased back to 73 percent, according to pollster "Elabe", down from 84 percent at its summit.
So weekend protests in the capital and other major cities could continue as the movement feels Macron has not done enough to meet their growing demands beyond the cancelled fuel tax, minimum wage increase, lower retiree social taxes and other measures.
The terrorist attack on Tuesday, in which three people were shot dead and 12 wounded in the eastern city of Strasbourg, has been a rallying call for the Government and pro-Macron supporters, who urge national unity at a time France has been attacked.
It is still unclear if people will heed a call Friday by Interior Minister Christophe Castaner to stay home from protests on Saturday, the day when most violent rallies have taken place throughout France.
On the political side, Macron's Prime Minister, Edouard Philippe, and his government survived a "no-confidence" motion in Parliament on Thursday with a very poor showing among the President's detractors.
Only 70 of the 577 members of parliament voted against Macron and his government, which reassured the president on that level.
But more problematic is the need to find spokespersons or reliable representatives among the 'Yellow Vests'.
Efforts to create a dialogue with the protest movement have failed miserably and there is really no visibility on how these protesters organise and deploy.
Again, the impact of anarchists and fascist extremists on demonstrations has been very significant and has been a spark for pitched battles in city centres between the 'Yellow Vests and riot police who have difficulty distinguishing between peaceful 'Yellow Vest' protesters and hooligans who have donned the same vests.
Also risky for Macron is the student protests that have close hundreds of schools and universities with protests against changes in the education system and more selective processes for university slots. Some of these protests have also turned violent. Other sectors - like the farmers, transporters and national media - are also either striking or threatening to strike, which can further envenom an already poisonous situation.
The government is urging calm after the deadly Strasbourg attack because it says police are needed for anti-terrorist security and can't be spared to quell riots on the streets.
But this appeal for civic spirit is falling on deaf ears because of the growing frustration that has built up over the past 18 months and is being especially felt by poorer people as we head into the expensive, holiday season.
If the protest movements continue - with or without major violence - then Macron might be forced to bend even more and further water down his extensive liberal policies, Veret told KUNA. (end) jk.sd