By Ronald Baygents
WASHINGTON, Sept 30 (KUNA) -- While most US political analysts, observers and focus groups quickly concluded that Hillary Clinton won the first presidential debate over Donald Trump on Monday night -- and early post-debate polls this week confirm that -- the results of most major polls on the debate will not arrive for a few more days.
The relatively small group of undecided voters, who likely will determine the election outcome, most likely will not make up their minds until they see the next two Clinton-Trump debates on October 9 and October 19 -- and many of those may not make up their minds until days before the November 8 election, if history is a guide.
The latest New York Times daily national Upshot poll, released on Friday, gave Democratic nominee Clinton 44 percent to 42 percent for Republican nominee Trump, while also concluding that Clinton has a 74 percent chance of winning the election, compared to 26 percent for Trump. This poll is based on a combined analysis of the latest state and national polls, including results in all key battleground states.
For most of September, Trump exceeded his polling benchmarks. Clinton led him in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) averages for all of September, but historical data suggested her lead was small enough that Trump could still overtake her before Election Day. Heading into the debate, Clinton led nationally by about 2 percentage points, a number that changes if third parties are included. This meant that Trump could realistically still catch up.
But post-debate polling suggests Clinton may have improved her standing. Rasmussen Reports released a poll on Thursday that showed Clinton ahead of Trump by one point. This is a significant improvement from Rasmussen's poll last week, which had Trump leading by five.
Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democratic firm, also released a post-debate survey that put Clinton ahead of Trump by four points. PPP's last survey showed her ahead by five, but it was conducted in late August. At that time, Clinton was leading Trump by about four points in the RCP poll averages rather than one or two. Additionally, many polls have shown that voters believe Clinton won the Monday debate by a large margin, and debate victories do sometimes lead to bounces in the polls.
David Byler, an RCP elections analyst, on Friday reported that if polling data continues to show such a bounce, it will likely keep Trump from exceeding his benchmarks and may even put him behind on them. If the debate ends up improving Clinton's standing by about two points, then Trump will be at a four-point deficit, Byler said.
Trump would then just barely hit his late September-early October benchmark, and if Clinton's bounce is larger than two points, Trump will miss his benchmarks by a significant amount, Byler said.
Trump could still win the election despite missing the benchmarks, but he would have to make up ground more quickly than most of his predecessors have been able to do, according to Byler.
Seemingly random events between now and November 8 can move US public opinion, and many voters are undecided or choosing third-party candidates. That means the polls could move more quickly in this race than in recent campaigns.
If Clinton gets and keeps a decent post-debate bounce, Clinton might be able to simply run out the clock, Byler said. But if her bounce fades, if Trump regains ground in the two upcoming debates or if more damaging information about Clinton's emails come to light, she may be stuck in a close race or at a deficit with little time left to improve her standing, he said.
In perhaps the most important of all US battleground states, Clinton has a narrow lead over Trump in a four-way race in Florida, according to a poll released on Friday, four days after the first debate.
The Mason-Dixon poll of likely voters found Clinton leading Trump in Florida by 46 percent to 42 percent, just outside of the poll's margin of error. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson drew seven percent support in Florida, ahead of Green Party candidate Jill Stein at one percent. Four percent said they remain undecided.
The Clinton edge in Florida is powered by support among women and non-white voters, and she performs better with Democrats (83 percent) than Trump does with Republicans (77 percent), the poll found. Trump was boosted by strong support among men and white voters, it found. (end) rm.hb