By Osama Jalal
KUWAIT, Oct 24 (KUNA) -- The price of crude oil is likely to oscillate between USD 105-115 during the remainder of the 4th quarter due to the onset of winter when demand for heating oil spikes, said two Kuwaiti energy experts on Thursday.
The experts, Dr. Talal al-Bathali and Ahmad Hassan Karam, concurred on the premise that no geopolitical influences will probably affect the oil price during the 4th quarter as they did during the 3rd quarter when the Syrian crisis and the US debt ceiling issue dominated the political scene.
Stressing that the spread in the oil prices would not go beyond USD 10 in the 4th quarter, al-Bathali noted that in all probability increased shale oil production in the US and Canada would not affect the supply and demand curve by much and therefore prices more or less would be stable.
US shale oil production rate currently does not match the demand for it in oil markets, he said, noting that any oversupply will be easily sopped up by the likes of giant consumers as China, Japan, India, and South Korea.
Karam, while agreeing that the price of oil might inch up a tad in the 4th quarter, considered any price over the 100 dollar mark a fair one. He said that demand for heating oil this winter was likely to add two to three dollars to the price of oil, but not much more.
What will keep the prices as high as they currently are and in the foreseeable future, he said, are the lowering of oil production in Libya (600, 000 barrels a day, down from 1.5 million) and the ban on the purchase of Iranian oil.
He expected that OPEC will keep its production level of 30 million barrels a day unruffled as it is quite satisfied with the current prices.
Furthermore, he said that US shale oil production, though not having a tangible influence on oil prices now, might in the long run affect prices due to overproduction and oversupply of oil in world markets. He said global expectations were that in the near future the US will be seen as the largest oil producer in the world and China the largest consumer. (end) osj.ajs KUNA 241613 Oct 13NNNN