TOKYO, June 18 (KUNA) -- North Korea may be preparing to launch a long-range ballistic missile toward the US southwest state of Hawaii from its Tongchang-ri facility on the northwestern coast as soon as early July, a top-selling newspaper reported here Thursday, citing analysis by the Japanese Defense Ministry.
According to the daily Yomiuri, the ministry believes North Korea is likely to launch a missile sometime between July 4 and 8, because the 1996 launch of the Taepodong-2 missile took place on the July 4 US Independence Day and July 8 falls on the anniversary of the 1994 death of former North Korean leader Kim Il-sung.
Based on the assumption that this latest missile is a two- or three-stage type and has capability equal or superior to the long-range ballistic missile North Korea launched in April, the ministry predicted the possibility of a launch toward Hawaii, with a launch toward Japan's southernmost prefecture of Okinawa and Guam also seen a possibility, the report said.
But if it took the Okinawan path, when the first-stage booster detaches, it could fall in the vicinity of a Chinese coastal area and might anger China, the daily said.
In the case of the Guam path, the missile must overfly South Korea and Japan's main island, which means the booster would be dumped onto a land area.
In case of the Hawaii route, the booster could be dumped into the Sea of Japan. If such a long-range test launch was successful, North Korea would be able to pose a great military threat to the US, which until now has not regarded North Korean missiles as a threat to North America or Hawaii.
Therefore, the ministry concluded the Hawaii route is most probable of the three scenarios, it said.
While the distance from North Korea to the main islands of Hawaii is about 7,000 kilometers, an upgraded Taepodong-2 only has a range of 4,000 to 6,500 kilometers. The ministry believes even if the missile took the most direct route over northern Japan, it would not reach the main Hawaiian Islands, it said.
North Korea has three missile launch bases in Kitteryong near the military demarcation line with South Korea and at Tongchang-ri, in addition to a base at Musudan-ri on the country's northeastern coast, where a long-range missile was launched on April 5, the daily recalled.
At the Tongchang-ri facility, either a Taepodong-2 missile or an upgraded Taepodong-2 was believed to have been brought from a missile manufacturing facility near Pyongyang on May 30, the newspaper said.
The ministry is considering starting preparations to intercept missiles based on the possibility that North Korea might launch missiles from all three bases simultaneously, it added. (end) mk.gb KUNA 182030 Jun 09NNNN